Jobs data
Worried about your job?
Feb 2nd 2008
From Economist.com
America’s employment figures take a gloomy turn, suggesting a recession is on the way
AFP
A RECESSION in America is a worry（大膽當名詞用吧，誰再說不行的，敲死他） that the latest data on American employment will do much to deepen. January’s non-farm（非農業） payroll（薪水冊，薪金總額） numbers showed a surprise drop of 17,000, the first decline since August 2003, according to figures released by the Bureau of Labour Statistics on Friday February 1st. Forecasters had hoped for a rise of 80,000, partly owing to good weather during the survey and partly because earlier data had been more upbeat（樂觀的，向上的）; the figures didn’t oblige.
As usual with American jobs data, not all the numbers pointed in the same direction. Optimists could take heart（振作） from an upward revision to December’s payroll numbers and from a small fall (from 5% to 4.9%) in January’s unemployment rate (a figure calculated from a separate survey of households【A domestic unit consisting of the members of a family who live together along with nonrelatives such as servants.
家庭：由住在一起的家庭成员及其他非亲属（如仆人）所组成的家庭单位
The living spaces and possessions belonging to such a unit.
家产：属于上述家庭单位的居住空间和财产
A person or group of people occupying a single dwelling:
住户：居住在一住处的个人或一群人：
the rise of nonfamily households.
非家庭型住户的兴起
adj.（形容词）
Of, relating to, or used in a household:
家庭的：家庭的，与家庭有关的，用于家中的：
household appliances.
家用电器
Commonly known; familiar:
家喻户晓的，熟悉的：
has become a household name.
成了家喻户晓的名字】). But pessimists could focus on a slippage（滑動） in 【slippage in/of
The data added to the debate about the Federal Reserve’s recent cuts in interest rates of 1.25 percentage points. Some commentators（講解員，評論員） claim that the weak jobs count vindicated（澄清） the Fed’s pre-emptive有先买权的, 有强制收购权的, 抢先的 move, others saw it as more evidence that the America’s central bank had acted too tardily緩慢. The chance of a further half-point cut at the Fed’s next meeting in March increased in response to the news.
The weak payroll number was driven by further falls in employment at construction companies and manufacturers. But while that might have been expected, the big surprise was a 11,000 drop【 [sing] (fig 比喻) decrease 下降: a drop in prices, temperatures, etc 物價﹑ 溫度等下降 * a big drop in the number of people out of work 失業人數大幅下降】in professional and business-services employment.
One crumb n.碎屑, 面包屑, 少許vt.搓碎, 弄碎 of comfort for those worried about the state of the economy is that the payroll count is notoriously volatile（不穩定的，易揮發的，易逝的）. It is derived from a survey, which questions 160,000 businesses and government entities accounting for a third of total non-farm payrolls. Despite a large sample size the initial payroll count is somewhat sketchy 粗略的and subject to significant revision. Between 2003 and 2006 the first estimate was revised by an average of 51,000 jobs each month.
These revisions occur because, in January (as with other months), only about 56% of businesses have responded to the survey by the time of its first release. Furthermore, the Bureau of Labour Statistics has to guess at the number of jobs created by new companies—the so called birth-deaths figure.
The unemployment rate is calculated from just 60,000 households, a small fraction片段 of the total of 110m. But it is not subject to the same drastic（又出現了） revisions as it receives over 90% of survey responses by the time of release. A recent study by Congress’s joint economic committee found that the unemployment rate is “the most useful indicator of recession” and the payroll count has “little value” as a guide to economic turning points. If that is so the news is ominous不吉利的Latin ½½sus}
拉丁语 ½½sus}
from ½n ½min- [omen]
源自 ½n ½min- [预兆. The study found the unemployment rate increases by 0.12 percentage points in the first three months of recession. A sharp rise in unemployment in December outpaced超過 。。。的速度the improvement in January giving an average rise over the past two months of 0.13 points.
