Super Tuesday

Super for whom?

Feb 4th 2008
From Economist.com

Which candidate will be smiling after Super Tuesday?

AFP/Shutterstock

NOTHING like it has been seen before in American electoral history. In 22 states across America, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will duke it out【To fight, especially with fists:

战斗，尤指用拳头争斗：duking it out.】

用拳头打个输赢 on Tuesday February 5th on what has variously been called Super Tuesday, Super-Duper欺騙者 Tuesday and Tsunami Tuesday. By the end of the day, more than half the delegates to August’s party convention in Denver will have been awarded. The day carries around twice the weight of past Super Tuesdays, as well as coming far earlier in the nomination cycle. What is still unclear, however, is what will constitute？ victory, and what defeat.

For Mrs Clinton, the stakes are highest: as the assumed front-runner since the start of the contest, she has nowhere to go but down. As little as two months ago, she was riding high, leading Mr Obama by more than 20 percentage points in national opinion polls, out-raising him in the cash stakes and holding commanding leads in almost all the biggest prize states. How things have changed: she has seen her national poll lead shrink to as little as five or six points, and she is being run close in Super Tuesday states where she expected to triumph. California, the richest prize of all, now looks like a tie平局. In December, Mrs Clinton was regularly polled at 25 percentage points ahead or more.

She remains the front-runner, just: but the momentum has been with Mr Obama, who has been gaining steadily on her since November. His endorsement by Edward Kennedy and Caroline Kennedy last week has hit Mrs Clinton very hard, by eating away at the core constituencies on which her support has rested. Mrs Kennedy (not to mention Oprah Winfrey, who is campaigning for Mr Obama) may damage her pre-eminence優勢，卓越 among women. Mr Kennedy’s voice may prove persuasive with the white working class, and with Hispanics, previously thought to be Mrs Clinton's most reliable vote-bank.

With Mr Obama closing in on逼近包圍her steadily, it is essential for Mrs Clinton to defeat him decisively果斷地 on Super Tuesday. Anything less than a crushing victory will allow the race to continue throughout February and well into March, and that will almost certainly prove fatal. After Super Tuesday, the race will shift back towards the sort of state-by-state retail politics that characterised the early primaries, allowing Mr Obama to play to his ability to fire up the crowds at huge rallies 【n.  大集会, 大会; 重整旗鼓; 集合; 重新振作

v.  集合, 重整; 团结; 召集; 重新振作; 集合, 重整; 恢复, 复元; 团结; 连续对打; 嘲弄, 开玩笑, 挖苦】

that resemble【verb
[VN] [no passive] (not used in the progressive tenses) to look like or be similar to another person or thing: She closely resembles her sister. ◆ So many hotels resemble each other. ◆ The plant resembles grass in appearance.】 rock-concerts more than conventional politics. The buzz that surrounds him will grow, neutralising Mrs Clinton's greatest advantage, which is the fact that people feel they know a lot more about her.

And if John McCain is entrenched【entrenched  

en·trenched /&O18;n&s12;trent&O43;t/ adj
strongly established and not likely to change - often used to show disapproval
entrenched in
　 Ageism is entrenched in our society.
entrenched attitudes/positions/interests etc
　 a deeply entrenched belief in male superiority
(also intrench) / &O18;n&s12;trent&O43;; &O18;nˋtr&O03;nt&O43;/ v [Tn usu passive 通常用於被動語態]
surround or protect (sb/sth) with a trench or trenches 用壕溝圍繞或保護（某人[某物]）: The enemy were strongly entrenched on the other side of the river. 敵軍在河的對岸用堅固的壕溝防守.
(fig sometimes derog 比喻, 有時作貶義) establish (sth/sb) very firmly 牢固地確立（某人[某事物]）: entrenched ideas, ie ones that are firmly fixed in the mind 根深蒂固的想法 * entrenched rights, ie those that are guaranteed by legislation 固有的權利 * She is entrenched in her right-wing views. 她的右翼觀點根深蒂固.
> entrenchment n
1 [C] system of trenches made for defence 塹壕.
2 [U] action of entrenching or being entrenched 掘壕溝; 用壕溝防護.】

 tomorrow as the Republican nominee (which looks probable), that can only help Mr Obama. As a less polarising figure than Mrs Clinton, Mr Obama will be perceived as a better choice to take on the centrist Mr McCain, matching his ability to appeal to the all-important independent voter. Mrs Clinton would be seen to have thrown away an apparently unassailable【(written) that cannot be destroyed, defeated or questioned: The party now has an unassailable lead. ◆ Their ten-point lead puts the team in an almost unassailable position. ◆ She replied with what she thought was unassailable logic ...】

 lead, thanks to running a poor and sometimes spiteful懷有惡意的 campaign, and for allowing ambiguity含糊不清的 about the role of Bill Clinton in a future Clinton White House to creep into the debate. This will make her look like damaged goods.

What, though, will constitute a decisive決定性的 victory? There is a little over 2,000 delegates at stake for the Democrats on Super Tuesday (a fraction more than half of the total), and winning a bare majority will clearly not be enough for Mrs Clinton. Should she win more than 1,300 to Mr Obama’s 700, she will probably be in the clear. Anything between those two extremes will be the subject of a protracted【拖延的lasting longer than expected or longer than usual: protracted delays / disputes / negotiations】 “spin” operation by the rival camps.

California, with 441 delegates, is the ultimate prize: even a narrow victory there will count, in news terms, for a huge amount. Likewise同樣的, a loss for Mrs Clinton in her home state of New York would be devastating【毀滅性的，破壞性的causing a lot of damage and destruction: a devastating explosion / fire / cyclone ◆ Oil spills are having a devastating effect on coral reefs in the ocean. ◆ He received devastating injuries in the accident. ◆ It will be a devastating blow to the local community if the factory closes.
extremely shocking to a person: the devastating news that her father was dead
impressive and powerful: his devastating performance in the 100 metres ◆ Her smile was devastating. ◆ a devastating attack on the President's economic record
devastatingly adverb: a devastatingly handsome man ◆ The play was devastatingly funny.】

, though that looks unlikely. Then there are bellwether系铃的公羊; 领导者; 前导 states like Missouri, which Mrs Clinton was originally supposed to be certain to win; these middle-America states are considered to be accurate predictors of national trends, and will be watched carefully.

With a large number of postal votes that won't be counted for many days, the results may not be known this week.Probably the most likely eventual outcome is an unclear result followed by a war of words, and a continuing cliff-hanger【扣人心弦的比赛; 高潮迭起, 紧张悬念, 扣人心弦】. That's good news for political junkies【(informal, especially AmE) of poor quality or of little value】 at least.